By Blake Ellis
Local Journalism Initiative Reporter
Petrolia Independent
If the projections are correct, there will be over 1,700 more students in classrooms at Lambton-Kent District School Board in 10 years.
A report on the enrolment projections for the next decade was presented to the public board recently. For the first time, the board hired an external consultant to compile the yearly estimates. Associate Director Brian McKay said school board staff usually conducts this type of work, but they lacked information about residential development, which impacts future enrolment numbers.
A demographics and planning consultant, Watson and Associates Economists Ltd, was hired. Jack Ammendolia, a managing partner, said what is happening in Ontario in terms of population growth and demographic shifts is unprecedented – something which has not been since the post Second World War period. “We are trying to put school boards in the best place to react.”
The things which impact enrolment numbers are migration within the province, immigration and housing supply, said Ammendolia. McKay added birth rate and the rate at which parents choose to enrol their children in the Lambton-Kent District School Board, instead of the Catholic school boards or private schools are other factors, which are taken into account.
Currently, there are 22,165 students enrolled at the public board with a capacity of 30,221. This means the school board is at 73 per cent capacity. In 10 years – during the 2033-34 school year – the enrolment number is expected to be 23,883, which will be 79 per cent of capacity.
The latest data will be used to formulate the next accommodation review report. However, it is unlikely any schools will be slated for closure since the moratorium remains in place.
